Peakoil Reloaded (German Edition)

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  • Peakoil Reloaded

    • But time's running out to prove that newly discovered fields and new technology can more than compensate for flagging production from the rapidly aging fields beyond OPEC. Last fiddled with by cheesehead on at All times are UTC. The time now is Wed Sep 19 A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.

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    In fact there is evidence suggesting it did play a roll in the meltdown and the dip in recovery. Then of course the "fracking revolution" happened and everyone seemed to forget all about impending oil shortfalls. Many of those IOUs will be coming due soon and there is some question as to how much of it will actually get paid back. Anyway, what's the plan for Bogleheads?

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    Staying the course when the rules have fundamentally changed seems like a bad idea to me and apparently many others; there has been a significant moving of assets out of equities over the past year. I'm also losing confidence that my VG Total Bond fund will be a safe port to ride out the storm should it materialize. However, I wouldn't advise anybody straying too far from a BH mindset to play the oil price rise. There are just so many variables in trying to predict where oil is going such that even people who do it for a living rarely get it right.

    A few variables to think about: Shale gets a lot of press, but at the end of the day it's still a small portion of global oil production.

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    What happens in the Permian is no more important than what happens in Venezuela or Mexico, or West Africa, or Brazil for that matter - let alone Russia and Saudi Arabia. It's not clear how the Saudis and Russians will react over the next few years if supply seems constrained, and it's also not clear how much excess capactity they have.

    Nobody knows whether Venezuela gets back on its feet or faces total collapse of the oil industry.

    German Army Study Warns of Peak Oil Crisis

    Then you also have the demand variable. Will it continue rising quickly as countries like India industrialize, or will a global trade war grind demand down? They are closely correlated with oil prices but aren't as subject to debt pressures or single-play risk as smaller companies. Unlike the majors, they don't have to worry about crack spreads and and other factors outside of oil prices.

    Unlike pure oil derivatives, you don't have to worry about decay. The first is that there is a low correlation between the performance of extraction industries and the underlying commodity.

    Peakoil Reloaded

    Often companies will hedge prices for years. Even over a decade. So you shouldn't bet on the oil producers for the short term - but by short term I mean under 10 years. By close reading of the annual reports you might be able to figure out a company or 3 to invest in, but we are not out of passive investing. The second is that wind and solar are finally becoming economically viable without massive subsidies, electric cars are becoming a thing, etc.

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    What will energy market look like in 10 years? So, you are going to need to guess correctly on both of these things. Page 5 of 5. Find More Posts by jasong.

    Peak Oil: THE U.S. SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED

    May Down not across 16 Posts. Originally Posted by jasong Makes me wonder if there will be peak Lithium as well? Find More Posts by xilman. Dubslow Basketry That Evening! Originally Posted by xilman Don't see why there shouldn't be, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

    Find More Posts by Dubslow. May Down not across 2 Posts. Originally Posted by Dubslow Supposedly the moon is incredibly rich in He Originally Posted by xilman IMO, until mining of the gas giants gets under way it is likely to be more economic to breed He-3 from Li down here on earth than it will to mine it from the lunar regolith. Originally Posted by jasong It's possible to make helium?

    Peakoil Reloaded

    Originally Posted by xilman How do you think we get helium-3 right now? Despite the many proposals, the limited advantages helium-3 provides for controlled fusion, the complex infrastructure required for lunar extraction, and the relatively modest cost of terrestrial production make it unlikely that extraterrestrial mining of helium-3 will ever be practical.

    Find More Posts by cheesehead. Originally Posted by cheesehead Yes, we've seen the oil crunch coming, for decades. Originally Posted by wblipp I haven't heard much about peak oil recently.

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    Nice Photovoltaik Peak in Germany.